demography

A year of exciting demography ahead!

Hello! I’m back after a long break, and looking forward to a year of exciting demography. My plans include kickstarting my research into internal migration in England and Wales. The way people move around the country, at different ages, is a fascinating topic which can tell us a lot about people and places. It is also an essential component of population change, and hence of population forecasting. It is forecasting which is my central interest, and in the course of 2020 I hope to move from modelling internal migration towards integrating it into a new forecasting model. I will be posting lots of findings and data on my Twitter account @andrewuniv.

I am also looking forward to attending the European Population Conference in Padova in June. It will be good to meet up with other demographers, and also to see a great European city. I’ll be there for a few days either side of the conference. It’s only half an hour by train to Venice, so I’m sure I’ll make at least one day trip.

The British Society of Population Studies is holding its annual conference in Leicester… or is it Oadby and Wigston? The University of Leicester venue, Stamford Court is on the halls of residence complex which lies just outside the city, in the neighbouring borough of Oadby and Wigston. This leads to some interesting migration patterns… lots of 18 year olds come in to Oadby and Wigston, only to move out to Leicester at 19. Halls of residence as first years, private rented accommodation as second years. There are one or two other similar pairings: Reading and Wokingham; Nottingham and Broxstowe for example.

Note strong in migration at 18 and out migration at 21: typical of university cities

Note the high outmigration at 18 – off to university, and at 19 off to Leicester after a year in halls

Meanwhile I will continue to work for local authorities part time, particularly on school place planning and its consequences – new school buildings. And my practical experiments in gerontology – looking after an aged parent will take up my weekends.

Have a great 2020! Andrew

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